Updated on May 23, 2025
The Bluff Catch is an essential part of poker theory that involves calling with a medium-strength or even weak hand when you believe your opponent is bluffing. Bluff catching primarily describes situations on the river when we're closing the action.
A call decision on the river is only a bluff catch if we don't win against any part of our opponent's value-betting range. In other words, we only win if the opponent is bluffing.
It's a crucial concept for players who want to improve, as it enables them to defend against opponents who try to steal pots with aggressive bets, even when they don't have strong hands.
Despite being rarely addressed in poker books, 888poker is here to explain everything about the bluff catch in poker!
Practical Example of Bluff Catch in Poker
Imagine the following situation in Texas Hold'em:
- Board: Q7235
- Hand: KQ
Here, we have top pair with the second-best kicker on the river.
Should this hand be considered a bluff catcher?
It depends on the action. Our hand should only be a bluff catcher if we don't expect our opponent to be value-betting with hands worse than ours (or with the same hand). If our opponent is three-barrelling (betting on the flop, turn, and river), they likely have AQ or better, and in that case, our hand can be a bluff catcher.
But if they only fire just one street on the river, they could be value-betting all top-pairs and weaker. Our KQ would not be a bluff catcher because it beats some of the holdings our opponent would value bet.
| Example of ‘bluff catch’ used in a sentence: We saw our opponent bluffing in this situation before and decided to bluff catch with our mid-strength poker hand. |
The Maths Behind Bluff Catching
Making a bluff catch in poker is a matter of simple maths. If the opponent is bluffing with a frequency higher than a specific value, it will be mathematically correct to bluff catch.
The difficulty lies in reliably estimating the frequency of opponents’ bluffs on different poker board runouts.
Calculating Pot Odds for Bluff Catch
Any decision on the river call should consider the pot odds. Bluff catching is no different.
Let's look at the following example:
We have a bluff catcher on the river, and our opponent makes a pot-sized bet. We estimate they're bluffing about 20% of the time.
Is bluff catching profitable here? We're getting pot odds of 2:1.
A more straightforward way to understand this is that our call will represent about 33.33% of the total pot, which means we need to be right at least that percentage of the time for the call to be correct.
If the villain bluffs only 20% of the time, we'll win only 20% of the time. So, the call would be unprofitable, as the opponent isn't bluffing with the minimum necessary 33.33% frequency.
How to Estimate Bluff Frequency on the River
The above information should be easy to understand, but it's only as good as our estimate of the villain's bluffing tendencies. If our estimates are off, we will make consistently bad decisions even if our bluff-catching maths is GTO poker razor sharp.
Being able to gauge bluffing frequencies accurately will improve over time and, in most cases, involves the following variables:
General Bluffing Tendencies
Most poker players don't bluff enough on the river. If you doubt the best decision with a bluff catcher, folding should be your default.
If you don't have a true bluff catcher (because you win against part of the opponent's value range), calling will almost always be the correct play.
Variables Affecting Bluff Frequency
Number of Streets
The more streets your opponent has bet on, the less likely it is that the bet on the river is a poker bluff. The most extreme example is the triple-barrel. When most players bet on the flop, turn, and river, it's doubtful they're bluffing with sufficient frequency to justify the bluff catch.
Two-street bluffs (i.e., turn and river) are borderline, and other variables should be considered. A single bet on the river (after the flop and turn have been checked) is generally a bluff with sufficient frequency for you to call with any bluff catcher comfortably.
Remember that for your hand to be a good bluff catcher, it should not be so weak as to lose against the opponent's bluffs. It should be strong enough to beat their entire bluffing range.
Position
Analysis indicates that, on average, players bluff more frequently out of position (OOP) on the river than in position (IP). If you're IP, you're more likely to have a profitable bluff catch.
Runout
It's no surprise that players tend to bluff more on boards where many draws didn't materialise. On board textures where all draws complete or form medium-strength made hands, it's unlikely that the opponent is bluffing with sufficient frequency to justify the bluff catch.
Most players don't have the skill to understand when they should turn a hand with showdown value into a bluff. So, the natural reaction will be to check on the river with any showdown value, which decreases the bluffing frequency on boards where it's rare to have only "air".
In the opposite scenario, with many failed draws on the river, the player is likelier to bluff too frequently. If they select all hands without showdown value as bluff candidates, they'll end up bluffing more often than they should, which allows for a profitable bluff catch.
Player Tendencies
Specific reads on individual opponents are essential in deciding whether to make a bluff catch. Some players bluff much more frequently than others. If you know the opponent has a history of aggressive bluffing on the river, you should naturally lean towards the bluff catch.
You can also look for patterns in bet sizing. Some opponents habitually always bet half the pot on the river when bluffing. If you know they bluff with one size and value-bet with another, you can make brutally effective bluff catch decisions.
Poker Bluff Catch – FAQ
What differentiates a true bluff catcher from a medium-value hand?
A true bluff catcher is a hand that can't win against any part of the opponent's value-betting range but can beat all their bluffs. A medium-value hand, on the other hand, can win against some hands the opponent value-bets
Should I bluff catch more frequently in tournaments or cash games?
The decision to bluff catch should consider the same variables in both formats. However, in poker tournaments, especially in the final stages, players tend to bluff less due to prize pressure.
Is it better to bluff catch against recreational players or professionals?
Generally, recreational players tend to make fewer bluffs on the river, especially in large pots. Against professionals, the decision should focus on specific tendencies you've observed in their game, as they are more capable of balancing their poker hand ranges.
How can I improve my bluff catch skills?
The best way to improve is to study specific situations with a poker calculator, analyse hands after sessions, and write detailed notes on opponent tendencies. Experience is fundamental, but you should back it up with theoretical study.
Final Thoughts on Bluff Catch in Poker
The next time you're in a bluff catch situation on the river, use the points covered in this article as a checklist.
If most variables point towards the bluff catch, call. Otherwise, fold.
We emphasise that this information applies mainly to scenarios on the river. Bluff catching on earlier streets is significantly more complex, as it involves anticipating what will happen on the following streets after the call.
Read our article about poker equity to learn more about the maths behind these trickier decisions.
Originally published on October 23, 2018
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